Wall Street inches higher ahead of revisions to US jobs numbers

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Wall Street inched higher early Tuesday ahead of a government data revision that economists expect will reveal that the U.S. labor market was sputtering well before President Donald Trump rolled out tariffs on the nation's trading partners this spring.

Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq each ticked up 0.1% before the bell, while futures for the S&P 500 were unchanged.

Later Tuesday, the U.S. government will release preliminary revisions for job growth numbers reported for the 12 months through March of this year. Analysts are forecasting that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will revise job gains for that period down by as much as 900,000. If the figures are revised sharply lower, it could halve the job growth that had been thought to have occurred.

“That would mean that private-sector employment actually shrank, on average, in the past three months and that job creation earlier in the year was weaker than currently reported,” said Fed Gov. Christopher Waller, two weeks ago at the Economic Club of Miami.

Waller, a candidate to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, said then that he expected a downward revision of 60,000 per month.

There has been mounting evidence that uncertainty over Trump's tariffs has kept business from hiring as actively as they had been when the U.S. rapidly rebounded from the COVID-19 recession. The U.S. economy is creating fewer than 75,000 jobs a month so far this year, less than half the 2024 average of 168,000 and not even a quarter of the 400,000 jobs added monthly in the hiring boom of 2021-2023.

When the Labor Department put out a disappointing July jobs report that also included downward revisions for previous months, an enraged Trump responded by firing the BLS economist in charge of compiling the numbers and nominating a loyalist to replace her.

While inflation still remains above the Fed's 2% target, most economists think the central bank will cut its benchmark lending rate at its meeting next week to help support the flagging U.S. labor market.

Reports on inflation will follow on Wednesday and Thursday.

Also Tuesday, Apple will unveil the next line-up of iPhones amid a global trade war that’s added a potential price increase to the company’s marquee product. Apple shares were unchanged before the opening bell Tuesday.

Shares of Fox Corp. tumbled 4.7% in premarket after Rupert Murdoch’s family said they've reached a deal on control of the 94-year-old mogul’s media empire after his death. The agreement ensures that there will be no change in direction at Fox News, the most popular network for President Donald Trump and conservatives.

The deal creates a trust establishing control of the Fox Corp. for Lachlan Murdoch, Rupert’s chosen heir who has been running Fox in recent years, along with his younger sisters, Grace and Chloe.

Elsewhere, in Europe at midday France's CAC 40 rose 0.3%, the German DAX fell 0.5% and Britain's FTSE 100 gained 0.2%.

In Asia, Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 erased earlier gains to finish 0.4% lower at 43,459.29, as political uncertainty continued after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said over the weekend that he planned to step down. Who will replace him is still uncertain and may take weeks to decide. The benchmark had momentarily surpassed the 44,000 mark.

Anticipation over one of the likely candidates, Sanae Takaichi, a hawkish legislator, sent defense issues higher in Tokyo trading. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries rose 0.3%, IHI added 1.0% and Kawasaki Heavy 0.4%. Veteran ruling party legislator Toshimitsu Motegi has indicated he wants to run, and other expected contenders include Farm Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi. All are members of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, which will need coalition partners to stay in power.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 declined 0.6% to 8,793.60. South Korea's Kospi climbed 1.3% to 3,260.05. Hong Kong's Hang Seng surged 1.2% to 25,938.13, while the Shanghai Composite fell 0.5% to 3,807.29. The mixed trading followed a stronger opening in Asia.

“Asian markets opened Tuesday with momentum, riding Wall Street’s conviction that Fed cuts are no longer a question of if but how many. Nearly three reductions are now being priced before year-end. That expectation is washing through global markets like a spring tide,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at SPI Asset Management.