Picking the NCAA women's bracket: UConn beats Texas for another national championship

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For those who will be entering an NCAA women's college basketball tournament bracket pool this year, let's begin with the ending:

You're probably going to pick Connecticut to win March Madness.

And almost everybody else in the pool will, too.

Do not overthink this. If you're a fan of South Carolina, UCLA or Texas — obviously, excellent teams — then go ahead and pick one of those schools to win the national championship. If it happens, you'll have a great chance to win the pool because everybody else will have picked UConn.

Here's the trick to winning a women's tournament pool: You've got to win the first weekend. It's what separates those who get to brag from those who don't.

By Week 2, the brackets will mostly look the same. It's rare that a team seeded lower than No. 8 reaches the Sweet 16; only three such teams in the last five years (Miami in 2023, Creighton and South Dakota in 2022) have gotten there.

To win, find those early upsets. There are three No. 11 seeds that seem like they could fit the bill.

Let's start with Fairfield. The Stags, champions of the Metro Atlantic, are 28-4. Sure, drawing Hannah Hidalgo and Notre Dame in Round 1 won't be easy, but if the Irish are off their game even a tiny bit this one will get interesting.

Next, Rhode Island. Also 28-4, the Atlantic 10 champions face Alabama in Round 1. The Rams do not let you score.

And now, South Dakota State. It takes on Washington in Round 1.

The Jackrabbits — come on, you have to love that name — gave Texas a relatively tough game in December and star forward Brooklyn Meyer is a problem. She’s the best player in the country that you’ve probably never heard of.

And if you want a live longshot or two (or four), take a look at these teams: Fairleigh Dickinson has won 22 in a row, Idaho 18 in a row, Murray State 15 in a row and Howard 14 in a row.

— There have been 43 previous NCAA women's tournaments. The champions by seed: 32 were No. 1 seeds, eight were No. 2 seeds and three were No. 3 seeds.

No. 4 through No. 16 seeds need not apply. If you'd like to pick your alma mater (and it's not a 1, 2 or 3 seed) to win it all, consider your bracket entry fee a charitable donation and don't bother looking at the final results.

— At least one No. 1 seed will get to the final.

There have been only three title games without a No. 1 seed: North Carolina (3) vs. Louisiana Tech (4) in 1994, Texas A&M (2) vs. Notre Dame (2) in 2011, and LSU (3) vs. Iowa (2) in 2023.

The lowest-seeded teams to make a final: Western Kentucky (1992), Louisiana Tech (1994), Rutgers (2007) and Syracuse (2016) as No. 4 seeds, and Louisville (2013) as a No. 5 seed.

Before we get to the picks, take a second to appreciate what UConn has done this season.

A perfect 34-0 so far, six wins away from the 40-win perfect season, a 50-game winning streak going back to last season's title run.

UConn has gone 70-3 in superstar forward Sarah Strong's games with the Huskies, including a staggering 48-1 at home or on neutral courts. A potential UConn-Iowa State game — Strong vs. Audi Crooks — in Round 2 would be appointment television.

Azzi Fudd is deadly from 3-point land when open and not much worse when she isn't. And KK Arnold remains vastly underrated; she's only gone 103-9 in her UConn career.

Fort Worth 1: UConn, Iowa State, Maryland, North Carolina, Fairfield, Ohio State, Colorado, Vanderbilt.

Sacramento 2: UCLA, Princeton, Gonzaga, Minnesota, Baylor, Duke, Villanova, LSU.

Fort Worth 3: Texas, Virginia Tech, Kentucky, West Virginia, Rhode Island, Louisville, Tennessee, Michigan.

Sacramento 4: South Carolina, Clemson, Michigan State, Oklahoma, South Dakota State, TCU, Georgia, Iowa.

Fort Worth 1: UConn, Maryland, Ohio State, Vanderbilt.

Sacramento 2: UCLA, Minnesota, Baylor, LSU.

Fort Worth 3: Texas, Kentucky, Louisville, Michigan.

Sacramento 4: South Carolina, Oklahoma, TCU, Iowa.

Fort Worth 1: UConn, Vanderbilt.

Sacramento 2: UCLA, LSU.

Fort Worth 3: Texas, Louisville.

Sacramento 3: South Carolina, Iowa.

UConn, UCLA, Texas, South Carolina. (Yes, the four No. 1 seeds.)

UConn beats South Carolina. Texas beats UCLA.

And in the end, it’s UConn over Texas for the national title.

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AP March Madness bracket: https://apnews.com/hub/ncaa-womens-bracket and coverage: https://apnews.com/hub/march-madness