Brazil's Supreme Court nears a verdict in coup plot trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro

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BRASILIA, Brazil (AP) — Brazil's former President Jair Bolsonaro came one step closer to knowing his fate as a panel of the country’s Supreme Court started voting on Tuesday on whether the ex-leader plotted to overthrow democracy and hang onto power illegally after his 2022 electoral defeat.

Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is overseeing the case and considered by Bolsonaro supporters a foe, said the far-right politician who governed Brazil between 2019 and 2022 was the leader of a coup plot, and voted in favor of convicting him.

De Moraes spoke for about five hours, listing a series of “executory acts” that he said made up the attempted coup, including casting unfounded doubts on the country's electoral voting system, drafting a decree to suspend the result of the election which Bolsonaro lost, and the Jan. 8 riots which De Moraes said aimed at forcing a military takeover.

De Moraes refuted Bolsonaro’s claim that when he discussed “possibilities” of staying in power, he did so within the limits of the law.

“Call it whatever you want: this was a draft decree for a coup d’état,” De Moraes said. "A series of executive acts were carried out aimed at breaking the democratic rule of law and perpetuating power through a coup d’état.”

Each of the five justices is to vote on Bolsonaro’s guilt or innocence, with a majority of three votes enough to convict.

After a break following De Moraes’ vote, Justice Flávio Dino began his own, which he is expected to conclude by the end of the day.

Court sessions are scheduled every day through Friday.

Bolsonaro did not attend the court, and his lawyers declined to speak to the press on Tuesday. Judicial police officers carrying assault weapons were present in the court room and in the nearby lobbies, a sign of the high-profile nature of the case.

The far-right ex-president is facing five counts at trial for allegedly conspiring to stage a coup after his narrow loss to current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist who first won the presidency two decades earlier.

If convicted by the five-judge panel in the verdict expected Thursday or Friday, Bolsonaro could be sentenced to decades behind bars.

Bolsonaro has always denied any wrongdoing, repeatedly calling the trial a politically motivated attack.

Prosecutors have pointed to evidence that Bolsonaro assembled top Cabinet and military officials to discuss issuing an emergency decree aimed at suspending the election outcome of October 2022 in order to investigate alleged voting fraud.

But last week defense lawyer Celso Vilardi vehemently noted the decree was never issued.

“The planning is not the execution. No matter how detailed the planning may be, it is the act of violence that actually consummates the crime,” Vilardi told the justices at the televised proceedings. “Bolsonaro ordered a transition.”

Bolsonaro ”did not act against the democratic rule of law,” he added.

As he laid out his vote in favor of a conviction, De Moraes disagreed.

“The mere attempt — especially because the completion will not allow anyone to be held responsible — consummates the crime” of a coup, he said, adding that if it had been successful the Supreme Court itself would be on trial.

Bolsonaro called himself the victim of a “witch hunt,” using the same expression as U.S. President Donald Trump in defending his right-wing ally. Trump has directly tied a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods to his ally’s judicial situation and is expected to be closely watching the trial outcome.

On Sunday, tens of thousands of Bolsonaro supporters took to the streets. In Sao Paulo, his wife Michelle Bolsonaro said in a speech that he loves the country.

Bolsonaro is charged with five counts: attempting to stage a coup, involvement in an armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law and two counts involving destruction of state property.

A guilty verdict on the coup plot charge alone carries a sentence of up to 12 years.

If one of the justices requests a longer review, the verdict could be delayed for up to 90 days, but court experts have said that’s unlikely.

In the event of a guilty verdict, each justice can recommend a sentence. If recommendations differ, a single justice chosen among the panel would determine an average of the prison time and possible fines.

Seven other close allies of Bolsonaro are being tried alongside the ex-president, including Walter Braga Netto, his former running mate and defense minister, and Paulo Sérgio Nogueira, another former defense minister.

Deemed a flight risk, Bolsonaro is wearing an ankle monitor and remains under house arrest. He did not appear in court last week due to ill health, Vilardi told journalists.

The trial marks a historic moment in Brazil: For the first time, high-ranking military officers and a former president accused of plotting against democratic rule are standing trial.

De Moraes reinforced the extraordinary aspect of alleged crimes in his vote. “Brazil almost returned to a dictatorship that lasted 20 years (...) because a criminal organization made up of a political group, led by Jair Bolsonaro, doesn’t understand that the democratic and republican principle is the alternation of power.”

Despite pressure from the White House, Brazil’s Supreme Court has kept the trial on track.

Observers said any U.S. sanctions against Brazilian authorities could be announced after the trial, further straining their fragile diplomatic relations.

Government officials or other Supreme Court justices could be sanctioned, like De Moraes already was late July, said Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, a think tank and university.

The reaction “could also involve broader visa restrictions for government officials, or more tariffs,” Stuenkel said. “It’s quite unpredictable.”

On Tuesday, the U.S. embassy in Brazil reposted a message from a day earlier from the U.S. State Department, declaring that the Trump administration would “continue to take appropriate action” regarding individuals such as De Moraes who they say have abused their authority.

On Saturday night, Lula delivered a national message ahead of Sunday's Independence Day celebrations saying Brazil “will not be anyone’s colony,” taking an indirect swipe at the Trump administration.

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Hughes reported from Rio de Janeiro.

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