Panthers will look to exploit Bills' 31st-ranked run defense, control clock with two-back approach

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Buffalo (4-2) at Carolina (4-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m., EDT, FOX

BetMGM NFL Odds: Bills by 7 1/2.

Series record: Bills lead 6-2.

Against the spread: Bills 2-4; Panthers 5-2.

Last week: Bills had a bye last week after losing to Falcons 24-14 on Oct. 13; Panthers beat Jets 13-6.

Last meeting: Bills beat Panthers 31-14 on Dec. 19, 2021, in Buffalo.

Bills offense: overall (3), rush (1), pass (11), scoring (4).

Bills defense: overall (15), rush (31), pass (2), scoring (17).

Panthers offense: overall (19), rush (3), pass (26), scoring (23).

Panthers defense: overall (7), rush (8), pass (10), scoring (t-13).

Turnover differential: Bills minus-1; Panthers minus-2.

TE Dalton Kincaid. The third-year tight end has had an extra week to recover from an oblique injury that sidelined him in a 24-14 loss at Atlanta. His absence was notable in an outing Josh Allen struggled in going 15 of 26 for 180 yards with two TDs and two interceptions. Kincaid has been Buffalo’s most reliable option this season, and leads the team with 287 yards receiving and three touchdown catches. He faces a Carolina defense that has struggled to defend tight ends allowing Hunter Henry, Darren Waller and Jake Ferguson to score in recent weeks.

DE Derrick Brown. Brown is coming off a big game against the New York Jets where he was a disruptive force on the line, getting two sacks, three quarterback hurries, three passes defensed and seven tackles. He can be a huge difference-maker when healthy and he seems to be rounding into top form after missing 16 games last season with a knee injury.

Panthers RBs Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard vs. Bills front seven. If the Panthers are going to have a chance against the Bills, they’ll need to control the time of possession and keep Josh Allen off the field. That means effectively running the football — something they have done extremely well of late. The Panthers have run for 580 yards over the past three games. They will again employ a two-back approach against the Bills. Last week Dowdle gained 79 yards rushing on 17 carries, while Hubbard had 14 carries for 31 yards. The vulnerable Bills defense comes into the game ranked 31st against the run, allowing 156.3 yards per game on the ground.

Bills: DT DaQuan Jones (calf) and WR Joshua Palmer (knee/ankle) are not expected to play Sunday. Starting safety Taylor Rapp's status is also uncertain because of a knee injury. LBs Terrel Bernard (ankle) and Matt Milano (pectoral) bear monitoring after being limited in practice on Wednesday.

Panthers: Veteran QB Andy Dalton could get the start on Sunday with Bryce Young recovering from an ankle injury. Dalton is 1-5 as a starter in Carolina over the past three seasons. The Panthers are expected to get guard Damien Lewis back for this week's game.

The Bills have dominated the series, winning six of eight meetings. Buffalo is 2-1 at Bank of America Stadium, which could feel like a home-field advantage for the Bills given the amount of the team's fans in the Charlotte area.

Coach Sean McDermott and GM Brandon Beane were both hired by the Bills in 2017 after working for the Panthers. McDermott spent six seasons as Carolina’s defensive coordinator, while Beane spent 18 seasons working in the Panthers front office. ... The Bills are 8-0 in games following their bye week under McDermott. The only NFL coach with a better record over that stretch is Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin, who improved to 9-0 this season... Buffalo has never lost three straight with Allen under center. The Bills dropped four in a row during Allen’s rookie season in 2018, but the quarterback was sidelined with an injury to his throwing elbow during the final three losses. ... After committing one turnover (an interception) over a 12-game span, including playoffs, Allen has four interceptions and a lost fumble in his past three. He’s 45-29 when committing a turnover as opposed to 35-7 when turnover-free. ... RB James Cook’s 12 TDs rushing on the road since the start of 2024 rank second in the NFL, behind Green Bay’s Josh Jacobs (13). ... The Bills have failed to score a TD rushing in two straight outings for the first time in the same season since Weeks 2 and 3 in 2022. Buffalo is 16-16 when not scoring a rushing TD since the start of 2019. ... The Bills allowed Atlanta to gain 335 yards and score 21 points in the first half two weeks ago, before limiting the Falcons to 108 yards and three points in the second half. ... The Panthers are 3-0 at home. ... Bryce Young has won three straight starts for the first time in his career, but has an injured ankle as his status for Sunday is unknown. ... The Panthers had six sacks and CB Jaycee Horn had two interceptions in last week's win against the Jets.

Panthers WR Xavier Legette is coming off the best game of his career against the Jets, catching nine passes for 92 yards and a touchdown. Legette has now caught a touchdown pass in two of his past three games.

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