Your Personal Bank with Ferenc Toth

Ferenc discusses the unprecedented valuations of the S&P 500, noting that 19 of 20 valuation metrics are above historical averages, including the Buffett indicator at 217%, the highest ever recorded. He warns of the AI bubble, citing a Bank of America survey where 54% of investors believe AI stocks are in a bubble. Ferenc highlights the concentration of wealth in tech stocks, with the top five companies representing about 30% of the S&P 500. He emphasizes the risks of market corrections, potential volatility, and the importance of diversification. Ferenc promotes index annuities and life products to continue unlimited upside potential while protecting downside market risk.

Ferenc Toth discusses the potential AI bubble, citing Jerome Powell's belated acknowledgment of asset purchases and the overvaluation of tech stocks, with 55% of fund managers believing tech stocks are overvalued. He highlights the lack of energy to power the AI needs. It is estimated the U.S. will need 70 new nuclear reactors to meet the needs of data centers by 2028. Ferenc also notes the disparity between high and low-income consumer confidence, with the top 1/3 of earners feeling 25% more confident. He advises reducing market risk through annuities and index products, emphasizing the importance of long-term investment strategies and risk management.

Ferenc Toth, a financial literacy educator, speaker, and entrepreneur, discusses the financial strategies and risks associated with the current market. He highlights the importance of understanding financial tools and making informed decisions. He emphasizes the benefits of Your Personal Bank, which offers high cash value policies, and annuities with unlimited upside potential and no downside market risk. He warns of the potential AI bubble, citing high valuations and the risk of a market correction. Ferenc advises on mitigating capital gains taxes through various strategies, including charitable trusts and partial conversions. He encourages listeners to scale out of market assets to subject to market risk due to extreme asset valuations.

Ferenc Toth discusses the impact of the recent federal government shutdown, noting that 75% of employees are essential and 25% are non-essential, with the latter potentially facing termination. He criticizes the federal government's excessive spending, which has increased by 54% since pre-COVID times, despite a 2% population growth. Toth also addresses the AI bubble, citing a Deutsche Bank study predicting a severe correction when the bubble bursts. He emphasizes the importance of reducing market risk and suggests a conservative investment strategy, including annuities and high cash value policies, to mitigate potential losses.

Ferenc discussed the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut despite high asset prices, debt, and inflation. He highlighted the dual mandate's counteractive nature and the political influence on rates. Ferenc noted the AI euphoria, with the S&P 500's top seven tech companies accounting for 35% of its market cap. He emphasized the fragility of CPI data, with about a third of the calculations based on estimates. Ferenc shared that current consumer spending is relying on the top 20% of Americans. He also discussed the impact of rising home prices, mortgage costs, and the potential for a recession. He advocated for fixed assets and annuities to mitigate risks.

Charlie Kirk was assassinated. He is a martyr. He was murdered in cold blood because someone disagreed with his ideas.    Charlie was killed because he was effective. This proves the enemy was scared of him. Charlie threatened the left's power.   Our country is at a turning point. We either encourage debate or we go in a really dark direction.   Charlie Kirk stated the reason he debated those who disagreed with him is when people stop talking, they resort to violence.   Our country has been here before. When the South's representatives stopped talking and resigned their positions, that is when the shooting started.  

If you attack people's character instead of their ideas, you are part of the problem, not part of the solution. Be the solution. That is the only way forward.

Ferenc shares the short and long term risks to the current stock market and the overall economy.   Short-term:     - AI Bubble    - Extreme valuations (all-time highs)    - Extreme concentration in a few tech stocks    - Nvidia: about half of sales from only 3 companies   Long-term:     - Higher bond yields caused by government debt and stubborn inflation    - Increased borrowing costs    - Generally bad for stock and real estate valuations  

How do you take advantage of future potential upside while protecting your downside?

Annuities offer unlimited upside potential while guaranteeing the principle against loss. 

- This is the "Golden Era" of fixed assets. The best rates in 40+ years, insured with guarantees.

- If you own an annuity 2+ years old, I strongly recommend comparing to the newer more profitable products.

- Many of my clients are earning 2-10x increased returns annually than their previous annuity products!

Ferenc discusses the parallels between the current tech stock market bubble and the dot-com era, emphasizing the risks of overvaluation and potential corrections. He recounts a listener's 100% return on tech stocks and warns of the dangers of not locking in gains. Ferenc highlights the MIT study showing 95% of companies saw no return on AI investments, and the potential for a severe market correction. He also addresses the Federal Reserve's new inflation target and the implications for interest rates. Ferenc advises on risk management strategies, including annuities and cash value insurance, to protect against market downturns.   Issues & Risks    

• • AI stocks may be in a bubble, similar to the dot-com era.  
• • According to a MIT study 95% of companies investing in AI have seen no financial benefit.  
• • Tech stocks account for 46% of S&P 500, higher than dot-com peak.  
• • Margin debt has surged to an all-time record of over a trillion dollars.  
• • Heavy truck index, a recession indicator, is going down strongly.  
• • Nvidia's valuation is now triple the entire energy sector.  
• • A third of the US economy is in recession or at high risk.

How do you take advantage of future potential upside while protecting your downside?

Annuities offer unlimited upside potential while guaranteeing the principle against loss. 

- This is the "Golden Era" of fixed assets. The best rates in 40+ years, insured with guarantees.

- If you own an annuity 2+ years old, I strongly recommend comparing to the newer more profitable products.

- Many of my clients are earning 2-10x increased returns annually than their previous annuity products!

A recent MIT study found that 95% of companies have received no benefit from generative Artificial Intelligence (AI).   Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, recently warned of an AI bubble. Altman compared the current AI frenzy and the 1990's dotcom bubble when company valuations spike dramatically before crashing.   The poster child of the dotcom craze was Pets.com. It was backed by Amazon. Pets.com reached a valuation of $410 million before going bankrupt about a year later.   CoreWeave is an AI company backed by Nvidia. After the MIT study, its stock dropped 33%. CoreWeave's peak valuation was 60x times larger than Pets.com at it's peak.   This is the reason Sam Altman stated that "Someone is going to lose a phenomenal amount of money" and "When bubbles happen, smart people get overexcited about a kernel of truth".   Sam Altman and most tech experts still believe AI will transform the economy in the future.    The problem is AI is currently limited by the shortage of GPU's. Sam Altman stated "We have better models, but we can't offer them because we don't have the supply."   Sam Altman also stated that "trillions of dollars" will have to be invested in infrastructure to scale AI to advance further.   An AI search uses about 10x the computing power of a typical Google search.   This information has caused concern for investors.    I believe that AI will make a significant positive on the economy, but it may take much longer than many investors expect.   With historically high valuations, stock prices may suffer a significant correction before AI can really make a difference.   Is this the beginning of the AI bubble starting to burst? We will know soon.   

How do you take advantage of future potential upside while protecting your downside?

Annuities offer unlimited upside potential while guaranteeing the principle against loss. 

- This is the "Golden Era" of fixed assets. The best rates in 40+ years, insured with guarantees.

- If you own an annuity 2+ years old, I strongly recommend comparing to the newer more profitable products.

- Many of my clients are earning 2-10x increased returns annually than their previous annuity products!

   - Your Personal Bank policies are insured, with guarantees, income tax-free, highly liquid, and likely to increase returns for the next 5-10 years due to higher bond yields.

   - Fixed Index Annuities have the best upside potential in 40+ years with no downside market risk. The principle is guaranteed. Some offer signing bonuses up to 17+% with strong upside potential.

The Buffett Indicator is a measure of the total market capitalization of publicly traded companies to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).   Warren Buffett called it "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment".   The Buffett Indicator has hit 2 times standard deviation for the 3rd time since 1950.   Two times standard deviation is double the average value. This means the overall stock market is double the average value.     Previously, the Buffett Indicator hit this level in 1969 and 2000. Both times the stock market had significant downside corrections (about 50%).   This indicator is worth paying attention to. It demonstrates that the stock market is significantly over-valued. Downside market risk is elevated.  

How do you take advantage of future potential upside while protecting your downside?

Annuities offer unlimited upside potential while guaranteeing the principle against loss. 

- This is the "Golden Era" of fixed assets. The best rates in 40+ years, insured with guarantees.

- If you own an annuity 2+ years old, I strongly recommend comparing to the newer more profitable products.

- Many of my clients are earning 2-10x increased returns annually than their previous annuity products!

   - Your Personal Bank policies are insured, with guarantees, income tax-free, highly liquid, and likely to increase returns for the next 5-10 years due to higher bond yields.

   - Fixed Index Annuities have the best upside potential in 40+ years with no downside market risk. The principle is guaranteed. Some offer signing bonuses up to 17+% with strong upside potential.

Trump has Announced Several Astounding Trade Deals   The terms on the recent trade deals are very favorable for the United States.  

-     Japan: 15% tariff, no tariff for US products, $550 billion joint-venture investment, 90% profit to US.

-     South Korea: 15% tariff, no tariff for US products, open market to US, $350 billion investment in US.

-     European Union: 15% tariff, no tariff for US products, $750 billion US energy purchase, $650 billion investment in the US.

The investments in the United States were negotiated to "buy down" the tariff rate.

Total investments pledged are about $15 trillion so far. This is almost double the valuation of every Silicon Valley company combined. 

The estimated tariff revenue for 2025 is about $700 billion.

These are massive numbers. This will have a huge impact on the US economy in the next few years. The upside potential is huge.

This is one of the largest infrastructure projects in history. Similar to many building projects, there could be challenges and delays. This could cause significant volatility.

How do you take advantage of the strong potential upside while protecting your downside?

Annuities offer unlimited upside potential while guaranteeing the principle against loss. 

- This is the "Golden Era" of fixed assets. The best rates in 40+ years, insured with guarantees.

- If you own an annuity 2+ years old, I strongly recommend comparing to the newer more profitable products.

- Many of my clients are earning 2-10x increased returns annually than their previous annuity products!

   - Your Personal Bank policies are insured, with guarantees, income tax-free, highly liquid, and likely to increase returns for the next 5-10 years due to higher bond yields.

   - Fixed Index Annuities have the best upside potential in 40+ years with no downside market risk. The principle is guaranteed. Some offer signing bonuses up to 17+% with strong upside potential.

Ferenc cuts through the noise and politics and continues to share significant tax opportunities for many people due to the Big, Beautiful Bill that is now passed as law.     The US government's lack of financial responsibility creates an opportunity.   This is the "Golden Era" of fixed assets. The best rates in 40+ years! Insured with guarantees.

   - Your Personal Bank policies are insured, with guarantees, income tax-free, highly liquid, and likely to increase returns for the next 5-10 years due to higher bond yields.

   - Fixed Index Annuities have the best upside potential in 40+ years with no downside market risk. The principle is guaranteed. Some offer signing bonuses up to 16% with strong upside potential.

Some leading economists and mathematicians built a computer model of the US economy to run various scenarios. Because this was such a big math problem, they used thousands of NASA and Amazon computers.   The computers were unable to create a working model because of the rising debt. Us Government Debt is currently over $36 Trillion. The increasing interest on the debt is unsustainable. The computers projected interest on the debt would consume one-third of all tax revenues within a decade. In 20 years, interest on the debt was estimated to be about 80% of tax revenue.   With the vast majority of revenues consumed by interest payments, there is not enough money remaining to pay for maintaining infrastructure, military, or other government services.    Economic chaos is the likely result. Many argue what would happen; Austerity Measures, Depression, Hyperinflation, ect. The reality is there are no good options.   The best option is to avoid economic chaos.   The good news is the computers estimated we have about 20 years before economic collapse. This gives us some time to fix the problem. But the longer we wait, the more drastic the solution.    The solution is obvious:    1. Increase income.    2. Reduce spending.   The Trump administration is aggressively taking steps to increase income (GDP) thru increasing tariff income, using tariff policy to reshore manufacturing, and encouraging investment in America.   DOGE found billions in waste and fraud. The Big, Beautiful Bill reduces spending about 2%. Deporting illegal aliens will reduce government welfare spending by billions of dollars. Further government reductions of spending are promised in the future.   There has been push-back on spending reductions, mostly from the court system. Many of the district court rulings have been overturned by Appellate Courts or the US Supreme Court.    It is not predetermined that the US economy crashes due to excessive debt. But major changes in income and spending have to be made.   This will be a generational change to the US economy. Regardless of what happens, there will be a significant transition period.     The US government's lack of financial responsibility creates an opportunity.   This is the "Golden Era" of fixed assets. The best rates in 40+ years! Insured with guarantees.

   - Your Personal Bank policies are insured, with guarantees, income tax-free, highly liquid, and likely to increase returns for the next 5-10 years due to higher bond yields.

   - Fixed Index Annuities have the best upside potential in 40+ years with no downside market risk. The principle is guaranteed. Some offer signing bonuses up to 16% with strong upside potential.

There is a lot of confusing info regarding the Big Beautiful Bill.    Forget the noise or the politics. What are the facts on some of the key aspects?   No Tax on Tips: up to $25,000 of tip income is tax-free plus your standard deduction of $15,750 for singles, $31,500 for married filing jointly.    Social Security Tax: Social Security Administration estimates 88% of seniors will no longer pay taxes on Social Security benefits.     - $24,000: average Social Security benefit     - $15,750: standard deduction for singles     -   $2,000: senior deduction     -   $6,000: new senior bonus (Big Beautiful Bill)     - $23,750: Total deductions Taxable Social Security = Zero for average senior   Requires citizenship for Medicaid. Health and Human Services estimate 1.5+ million illegal aliens will lose Medicaid benefits despite not being eligible.   Currently, 14 states offer government healthcare "regardless of immigration status". Taxpayers pay for this.   If you have private health coverage, you pay premiums every month. Many have large deductibles. Most never use it unless absolutely. If a health situation occurs, insurance rarely pays for everything. You could get stuck with huge medical debt.   Illegals have received free healthcare. Government is supposed to benefit citizens. Our government is supposed to promote and protect the principles of the Declaration of Independence: "We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among those are Life, Liberty, and the pursuit of Happiness. --That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men."    The US is the only country in the world that pays for the medical expenses of people who don't belong here, yet expects our citizens to not only pay our own medical bills but also the medical expenses of  illegals.   I don't think we should have to work hard to pay for benefits for illegals.       Us Government Debt is over $37 Trillion.   The US government's lack of financial responsibility creates an opportunity.   This is the "Golden Era" of fixed assets. The best rates in 40+ years! Insured with guarantees.

   - Your Personal Bank policies are insured, with guarantees, income tax-free, highly liquid, and likely to increase returns for the next 5-10 years due to higher bond yields.

   - Fixed Index Annuities have the best upside potential in 40+ years with no downside market risk. The principle is guaranteed. Some offer signing bonuses up to 16% with strong upside potential.

Brigham Blackham empowers top leaders through the art of storytelling. With a background in teaching Mandarin and theater, he combines his expertise in communication and leadership to help entrepreneurs elevate their stories and drive impact through personal & professional development. As host of the Levelin' Up Podcast, Brigham focuses on building relationships that foster collaborative capitalism—unlocking growth through meaningful connections and shared success. He is a master connector to help you identify the ideal resources to take your life & business to the next level.        Us Government Debt is over $37 Trillion.   The US government's lack of financial responsibility creates an opportunity.   This is the "Golden Era" of fixed assets. The best rates in 40+ years! Insured with guarantees.

   - Your Personal Bank policies are insured, with guarantees, income tax-free, highly liquid, and likely to increase returns for the next 5-10 years due to higher bond yields.

   - Fixed Index Annuities have the best upside potential in 40+ years with no downside market risk. The principle is guaranteed. Some offer signing bonuses up to 16% with strong upside potential.

Many people are confused. If houses are not selling, why are not prices not falling? There are several reasons.   Cause: Housing prices increased an average of 50% from 2019 -2024 in the US. Some areas increased up to 100%.   Strong purchasing demand plus limited inventory was the primary reason for prices increasing.   Housing affordability is at historical lows due to significantly higher mortgage interest rates and higher purchase prices. This has destroyed buying demand.   The average American household can no longer afford to purchase the average home in America.   Effect: Some homeowners are still hoping to cash in on the pandemic housing boom.   Low mortgages have a "lock-in effect". Many are reluctant to sell their current home and replace with a much higher interest rate.   Others are not delusional, they cannot afford to move.   Projection: There is hope on the horizon.   Housing inventory has increased to pre-COVID levels in many markets, particularly in the South and West.   Homebuilders are offering record levels of incentives for new homebuyers.   Rental rates have declined for 21 consecutive months. Investors are selling at record levels due to the declining rental income.   Job changes or life events are forcing some to move.   As time passes, the low interest rate mortgage "lock-in effect" is receding.   These are factors that will contribute to declining housing prices.     Us Government Debt is over $37 Trillion.   The US government's lack of financial responsibility creates an opportunity.   This is the "Golden Era" of fixed assets. The best rates in 40+ years! Insured with guarantees.

   - Your Personal Bank policies are insured, with guarantees, income tax-free, highly liquid, and likely to increase returns for the next 5-10 years due to higher bond yields.

   - Fixed Index Annuities have the best upside potential in 40+ years with no downside market risk. The principle is guaranteed. Some offer signing bonuses up to 16% with strong upside potential.

Excessive government debt has contributed to inflation and is pushing interest rates higher.   The government continues to add to the debt by spending more than it receives. The US government receives about $5T in revenues annually. They spend about $7T per year.   Higher interest rates and increasing debt is increasing interest payments on the debt at unsustainable levels.    Many are concerned the debt will lead to a financial crisis.   The big question is how high can US debt go before it triggers a financial crisis?   Government debt is currently about $37T. This is 121% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).   Interest payments are about $1.1T annually. This is about 22% of annual government revenues.   Is the US at crisis levels? No. Not yet, but we are on an unsustainable path.   If interest on the debt continues to increase at current levels, interest payments will increase to about 30% of revenues in 5-7 years per Moody's.   If you have ever applied for a mortgage, you likely would have been declined if your debt to income ratio was above 30%. This is because lenders understand that if interest payments are too high, you are unable to maintain the payments.   The solutions are to increase income, reduce spending, or both. You already know this. You do this with your household budget.   The Trump administration is attempting to increase income via tariff income and reshore manufacturing to boost the economy (increase income).   The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) is attempting to reduce fraud and wasteful spending.   Only in Washington is common sense considered radical.     The US government's lack of financial responsibility creates an opportunity.   This is the "Golden Era" of fixed assets. The best rates in 40+ years! Insured with guarantees.

   - Your Personal Bank policies are insured, with guarantees, income tax-free, highly liquid, and likely to increase returns for the next 5-10 years due to higher bond yields.

   - Fixed Index Annuities have the best upside potential in 40+ years with no downside market risk. The principle is guaranteed. Some offer signing bonuses up to 16% with strong upside potential.

Pimco released a report recently and stated stocks haven’t looked this expensive relative to bonds in nearly 25 years.

Bonds look better than they have for a long time. 

Pimco states "The traditional world order — in which economics shaped politics — has been turned on its head,” according to a new five-year Pimco outlook co-written by Richard Clarida, now a global economic adviser at Pimco and formerly a Federal Reserve vice chair from 2018 to 2022.

“Politics is now driving economics, especially in the U.S. and increasingly in how other countries respond.”

Pimco recommends investors should start taking advantage of the highest returns in decades offered by fixed assets rather than chasing stocks at elevated valuations.

I have recognized politics and government policies significantly affect our economy and our money for several years. This is why I share this info on my radio show.

This is the "Golden Era" of fixed assets. The best rates in 40+ years! Insured with guarantees.

   - Your Personal Bank policies are insured, with guarantees, income tax-free, highly liquid, and likely to increase returns for the next 5-10 years due to higher bond yields.

   - Fixed Index Annuities have the best upside potential in 40+ years with no downside market risk. The principle is guaranteed. Some offer signing bonuses up to 16% with strong upside potential.