Just before shutdown, most Americans wanted health insurance tax credits extended, KFF poll finds

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NEW YORK (AP) — Most Americans want Congress to extend tax credits that, if left to expire at the end of the year, could raise health insurance costs for millions of Americans, according to a new poll released Friday from the health care research nonprofit KFF.

The survey, which was conducted from Sept. 23-29, just prior to the shutdown that began Wednesday, shows initial public support for a move that Democrats have been demanding be included in any government funding bill they sign. A Senate standoff, in part over the enhanced premium tax credits set to end in 2025 if Congress doesn’t act, has resulted in a government shutdown that’s lasted into a third day with no end in sight.

At the same time, the survey showed that only about 4 in 10 U.S. adults had read “a lot” or “some” about the subsidies as the shutdown began, leaving room for public opinion to shift in either direction as the political fight continues. A New York Times/Siena poll of registered voters conducted roughly in the same time period as the KFF poll found that most voters did not want Democrats to shut down the government, even if their demands were not met.

Republicans in Congress have expressed openness to negotiating the extension, but argue it can wait until government funding is restored through a stopgap measure they say is noncontroversial.

The vast majority of Democrats supported the extended tax credits, the poll found, but so did a slimmer majority of Republicans. Those who wanted the health care subsidies to continue were more likely to say they would blame President Donald Trump or the Republicans than Democrats if the credits expired.

At stake is the cost of health insurance for the 24 million people who have signed up for health coverage through the ACA, in part encouraged by the billions of dollars in subsidies that made it more affordable for many people.

According to the KFF poll, about 3 in 4 Americans — 78% — said that they wanted Congress to extend expiring tax credits for people who buy health insurance through the Affordable Care Act marketplace.

That view cuts across party lines, including majorities of Democrats, independents and Republicans. More than half of Republicans who align with President Trump's Make America Great Again movement — 57% — also supported an extension, the poll found.

The expanded subsidies, first passed in 2021 and extended a year later, allow some low-income enrollees to access health plans with no premiums and cap high earners' premiums at 8.5% of their income. When they expire, ACA premiums will more than double for the average ACA enrollee, according to another KFF analysis.

KFF's new poll shows that if the subsidies aren't extended by the start of the Nov. 1 open enrollment period, many Americans who buy their own health insurance could be caught unaware that their premiums are set to rise next year.

About 6 in 10 people who have self-purchased insurance said they had heard “a little” or “nothing” about the tax credits' expiration.

Asked if they could afford nearly double the cost they pay in health insurance premiums, 70% of people who purchase insurance through the ACA Marketplace said they could not do this without significantly disrupting their household finances. About 4 in 10 said they’d go without health insurance coverage if their premiums rose that much, while a similar share said they would keep paying and 22% would seek insurance from another source, like an employer or spouse's employer.

The poll found that just before the shutdown began, Americans who supported the tax credits were more likely to blame Republicans, who hold the presidency and majorities in both houses of Congress, if the subsidies are left to expire at the end of the year. According to the poll, about 8 in 10 U.S. adults who wanted the subsidies extended said either Trump or Republicans in Congress would deserve most of the blame, while about 2 in 10 said they would blame Democrats in Congress.

In general, though, Democrats were more likely than Republicans or independents to be aware of the pending expiration, leaving room for views to shift as the issue rises in prominence.

The findings come as a recent poll from The Washington Post also found more Americans lay blame for the shutdown on Trump and congressional Republicans than on congressional Democrats, though the findings were preliminary and many respondents were unsure.

House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries on Thursday said that millions of Americans are facing "dramatically increased health care premiums, co-pays and deductibles because of the Republican unwillingness to extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits.”

Republican leaders, meanwhile, say Democrats are holding the government hostage over a decision that does not need to be tied to the immediate restoration of government funding.

“Real pain is being inflicted on the American people” because of Democrats' refusal to vote for the Republican legislation to fund the government, House Speaker Mike Johnson said Thursday.