New poll: Hispanic and rural voters conflicted over Texas' direction

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(The Center Square) – Rural and Hispanic voters are split on the direction of the state and country, according to a new poll conducted by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston. 

Another new poll shows Republicans leading in statewide races and generic congressional and state legislative races by two point margins.

The Hobby poll surveyed voters in critical voting blocks expected to vote in the Nov. 3 election.

In Texas, Republicans have historically won the rural vote. Democrats have historically won the Hispanic vote. In the last two elections, Hispanic voters shifted right, voting for President Donald Trump in previous elections and flipping border counties and multiple races red, The Center Square reported. Some polls suggest that momentum has shifted left, with voters across the board pointing to a worsening economy as their top concern.

Both Hispanic and rural voters list the economy as their top concern. Rural voters also point to high fuel costs, fertilizer shortages and federal policies negatively impacting ranching and farming operations. They are also overwhelmingly opposed to data centers being built in their communities. 

Despite this, the majority of rural voters polled, 59%, said they believe Texas under Gov. Greg Abbott is heading in the right direction; 41% say it isn’t, according to the Hobby poll.

A majority of rural Texas voters, 56%, also say the U.S. is heading in the right direction under Trump; 44% say it isn’t, according to the Hobby poll.

The numbers are reversed among Hispanic voters: 58% say Texas is heading in the wrong direction; 42% say it’s headed in the right direction, according to the Hobby poll. 

When it comes to the direction of the U.S., 62% of Hispanic Texas voters polled say it’s heading in the wrong direction; 38% say it isn’t, according to the Hobby poll. 

Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa among rural voters by 37 points. Hinojosa leads Abbott among Hispanic voters by 10 points, according to the Hobby poll.

The majority of rural voters, 67%, have a favorable opinion of Trump compared to 43% of Hispanic voters who do, according to the Hobby poll.

Similar to other new polls, a new Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) poll found that Republicans in statewide races are ahead by slim margins.  

It has Abbott leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa by three points. A new CBS News/YouGov survey has Abbott leading Hinojosa by four points.

In the race for lieutenant governor, incumbent Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick is leading Democrat Vicki Goodwin by three points. In the races for attorney general, Railroad Commissioner, state Comptroller and Agriculture Commissioner, Republicans are leading by two points. In the race for Texas Land Commissioner, incumbent Republican Dawn Buckingham is leading Democrat Benjamin Flores by one point, according to the TPOR poll. 

In each of the races, Independents, Libertarians and Green Party candidates are receiving between 1% and 3% of the vote, according to multiple polls, The Center Square reported. 

The outlier, as in nearly all polls, is in the U.S. Senate race. Democrat James Talarico is leading Attorney General Ken Paxton by four points, according to the TPOR poll, and by three points, according to the CBS News poll.

The TPOR poll also shows Republicans leading by two points in a generic congressional ballot and in a generic state legislature ballot.

Early voting is underway with polling data showing Democrats are voting in significantly larger margins than Republicans. Early voting goes through Oct. 30.