Cook Report shifts Minnesota U.S. Senate race in favor of Republican

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(The Center Square) – With less than two weeks until Election Day, the Minnesota U.S. Senate race has shifted in favor of Republican and former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya.

The Cook Political Report shifted its rating in the race from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.”

The shift comes as fraud, crime and the economy take center stage in the race between Tafoya and Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan.

“Peggy Flanagan will be a rubber stamp for the far-left socialist agenda,” Tafoya said on Wednesday. “Our campaign has the support of law enforcement, farmers, and business owners who are tired of failed policies. Minnesotans are ready to end single-party control. Peggy offers excuses. I’ll deliver accountability.”

Flanagan has continued to tie Tafoya to President Donald Trump, saying she is “lockstep with Trump’s MAGA agenda.”

“Donald Trump lost Minnesota three times in a row—let's make it four,” she said on Wednesday, adding, “We can’t afford any more Senators who will go along and get along with Trump’s corruption and cruelty.”

The Cook Political Report is a widely-cited, nonpartisan election analysis outlet that tracks the competitiveness of races nationwide. The rating change reflects a shift in the race’s overall outlook.

The polling is still in Flanagan’s favor, though. Currently, Flanagan leads Tafoya 47% to 42.6%, according to the average of the five most-recent polls compiled by 270toWin.

It is expected to be one of the bellwether races set to determine the balance of congressional power.

Of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate, 33 are up for regular election in 2026, along with two special elections. Democrats currently hold 13 of the seats on the ballot, while Republicans hold 22. That means this election cycle will determine which party controls the 120th Congress.

A Republican candidate has not won a U.S. Senate seat in Minnesota since 2002. Tafoya hopes to be the first, labeling herself a political outsider.

“Minnesotans are rejecting Peggy Flanagan’s record of failure,” she said. “Gang violence. Rampant fraud. Declining test scores. All on her watch as lieutenant governor. It’s time for an outsider.”

Flanagan, who has served alongside Democrat Gov. Tim Walz since 2018, is running amid ongoing scrutiny of the Walz administration. She has called out Tafoya for being endorsed by Trump, calling her a “yes vote” for him if elected.

“We have a choice, Minnesota,” Flanagan said. “Do you want a Senator who will work for you to lower costs, end the illegal war in Iran, and hold ICE accountable? Or do you want another Senator for Trump?”

With Election Day 12 days away, absentee ballots have been distributed statewide, and early in-person voting is already underway.