The Buffet Indicator Has Hit 2x Standard Deviation for the 3rd Time Since 1950

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Tuesday, August 12, 2025

The Buffett Indicator is a measure of the total market capitalization of publicly traded companies to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Warren Buffett called it "probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment". The Buffett Indicator has hit 2 times standard deviation for the 3rd time since 1950. Two times standard deviation is double the average value. This means the overall stock market is double the average value. Previously, the Buffett Indicator hit this level in 1969 and 2000. Both times the stock market had significant downside corrections (about 50%). This indicator is worth paying attention to. It demonstrates that the stock market is significantly over-valued. Downside market risk is elevated.

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